Well what a week it’s been folks! It’s now 3 consecutive winning safe and medium diamond trebles at 6/5, 9/5, 11/5, 4/1, 5/1 and 11/2 which is incredible given this week’s shocking set of fixtures. I’m hoping the return of mainstream football won’t be our undoing tonight but as always I’ve been digging through with my bookie bashing spade to find 3 games that tickle my fancy. From those 3 games I’ve chosen a safe, medium and risky bet, with all the analysis of course, giving you the choice of what to back. Let’s make it 4 in a row!!!
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SAFE DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 2/1
MEDIUM DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 6/1
RISKY DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 58/1
1) Volendam vs Almere City FC (Dutch Jupiler League, 7:00PM)
We start in Holland as 2nd placed Volendam take on 17th placed Almere City in the Dutch 2nd tier. It was a difficult break for the national team of Holland that’s for sure but following two weeks break it’s time to get back underway with the real dutch football. Volendam have been a very decent side this season and following a 3-1 win over Eredivisie side PEC Zwolle in a friendly during the international break, they will be looking to resume exactly where they left off. They’d won 4 games on the bounce prior to a few weeks off and here at home have suffered just one loss this season at the hands of league leaders NEC. Hans De Koning has this side playing some real decent football this season as they look to build on a mid-table finish last season. He’ll have to make do without Theo Timmerman between the sticks and Guyon Phillips up front though as both are still nursing injuries but he does welcome back veteran midfielder Raymond Fafiana who should provide some stability. 21 year old striker Henk Veerman is almost a cert to start this game having already bagged 4 times this season, almost matching his tally of last year and having scored a brace in Voldenam’s last home game. Theo Zwarthoed is likely to start in the nets due to Timmerman’s absence but he’s been a damn decent backup since joining from Groningen keeping clean sheets in his last 3 consecutive games meanwhile Sofian Akouili is likely to start in defence and he’s been pretty solid himself since moving from Willem II. This evening it’s Almere who make the 50km journey around the coast to the Kras Stadion in Northern Holland and Fred Grim will not be relishing this journey in the slightest even though it is only round the corner. Almere’s record as a whole this season is played 9, won 2, lost 7 but their away form really does make for “Grim” reading (see what I did there? Fred Grim….Grim…never mind!). Not only have they played 5 and lost 5 on the road, they have conceded 14 goals in that time and have conceded 3 or more goals in 4 of their 5 away games. They’re setting themselves up for disaster with that kind of defensive record as they only really have a couple of players who can score goals in Vincent Janssen and Fabian Serrarens. I really don’t see how Almere can possibly scrape a result here this evening given everything I’ve mentioned above. They’ve met here at the Kras Stadion a total of 8 times with Volendam winning 7 of those meetings and the other ending in a draw and I think Volendam will add to that incredible record they have against almere today.
SAFE BET: Voldendam to win at 11/20
MEDIUM BET: Volendam -1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.925
RISKY BET: Volendam Over 2.5 Team Goals at 6/4
2) Viborg vs Frederica (Danish 1st Division, 6PM)
Over to Denmark next as league leaders Viborg take on a mid-table Frederica side in what seems like a pretty decent fixture to kick off the return of Danish football after their international break. Viborg have been pretty impressive this season and remain undefeated in the 1st division having been relegated from the Superliga last season. At this rate they look set to bounce straight back up but there’s a long way to go yet before we can start assuming that and given that they top the table only on goal difference at present over Lyngby, a win will definitely be welcomed this evening to pile the pressure on the chasing pack to pick up results this weekend. Viborg’s only crime this season has been picking up too many draws and not seeing out the win, so you’ve got to go a bit safe if you want some security on your bet here but I do fancy them to win it. Lithuanian coach Aurelijus Skarbalius is boosted by the return of midfielder Marcel Romer (11,1) but more importantly top scorer and striker Jeppe Curth (11,4) this evening as both have served suspensions and that’s a huge boost coming into only their 2nd home game of the month so far. Frederica are the visitors to Monjasa Park this evening and their record so far this season can only be described as satisfactory. They haven’t really got going with any kind of run and have a record of won 3, drawn 5, lost 3 this season which pretty much says it all. Away from home this season their only win has come against newly promoted and struggling Roskilde in a 0-1 victory back in September but aside from that game they have conceded 2 or more goals in all the other 5 games, including in a 2-2 draw here at Viborg only a few months ago. For the 2nd meeting between the two clubs this season Frederica coach Nicolai Wael will also be boosted by the return of striker Jeppe Hansen (3,0) and captain Jacob Thychosen (0,0) who should be making his first appearance of the season this evening. All in all this is very difficult to find a bet because the bookies have it priced just right, so I’m going to be a chicken and back something at a very short price again for the safe bet. It just cannot lose in my eyes and I know it’s shorter than I normally go, but I have to take this over the Draw No Bet which could well end as a void. The last 4 consecutive meetings between these two sides have ended in score draws and it’s hard not to look down that route again to be honest. This is either going to be a score draw or a Viborg win by a single goal in my eyes but I’m going to lean towards the draw and be a little bit risky!
SAFE BET: Viborg +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.225
MEDIUM BET: Both Teams to Score at 5/6
RISKY BET: Both Teams to Score & DRAW at 4/1
3) Nurnberg vs RB Liepzig (German Bundesliga II, 7:30PM)
Over to Germany for our final pick of the day as we yet again delve into the Red Bull franchise as Liepzig travel to Nurnberg this evening. Nurnberg were widely expected to bounce back from their relegation to Bundesliga II last season but so far, things really aren’t going to plan! Nurnberg sit 13th in Bundesliga II this season and have a goal difference which is the 2nd worst in the league as well. They lost a serious amount of players in the summer due to their relegation with the likes of Drmic (ST,33,17), Ginczek (ST,17,3), Pekhart (ST,23,1), Ballitsch (MF,14,0), Hlousek (MF,28,3), Kiyotake (MF,33,3), Frantz (MF, 31,1), Pogatetz (DF,23,1), Chandler (DF,21,1) Nilsson (DF,20,3) all leaving the club (there are more than that by the way I just don’t have time to list them all!). That means there has been a major reshuffle by Valerien Ismael this season and so far it really isn’t going to plan. And part of the reason for their very poor return when it comes to goals this season has been a shot on target ratio of just 7.58%! They’re not going to get goals with those kind of stats against their name, the worst in Bundesliga II by the way! And as for their goals conceded, well Ismael’s decision to replace a goalkeeper who has been first choice for 14 years at this club, Raphael Schafer with the younger and less experienced 21 year old Patrick Rakovsky could well have been a huge factor! Ismael will be missing midfielder Gebhart (6,1) and striker Danny Blum (0,0) this evening as both are nursing injuries. Liepzig come into this game knowing that a win will make them the highest ranked newcomer in the Bundesliga II. Having been promoted from the 3.Liga last season they already sit 4th in a higher division and a win by 3 or more goals this evening could move them top of the pile, an incredible debut season so far. But they of course have some money because they have the backing of Red Bull. The New York Red Bulls, Red Bull Salzburg and Red Bull Brasil are all clubs owned in this franchise and you will often see transfers between these clubs to allow experience in what is an ever growing empire. But their most effective player this season hasn’t been a new signing acquired from splashing the cash at all. Danish 20 year old Yussuf Poulsen scored 10 goals in 36 appearances to help fire Liepzig to promotion last year but so far this season he has stepped it up a gear, scoring 6 goals in his first 7 games for the club. Add to that the signing of Rani Khedira from Stuttgart (yes, the younger brother of Sami) as well as Georg Tiegl who has been impressive since moving half way through last season from Salzburg. This side has some great youth players and they really are the dogs bollocks in this league. I’d be highly surprised if they weren’t promoted this year and though they make a difficult journey to a former Bundesliga opponent, I fancy them to build on form which has seen them lose just 1 game in 10 so far this season in all competitions, including an extra time win in the cup over top flight side Paderborn!
SAFE BET: RB Liepzig or Draw at 4/7
MEDIUM BET: RB Liepzig 0.0 Asian Handicap (Draw No Bet) at 2.050
RISKY BET: RB Liepzig to win & Over 2.5 Goals at 15/4
