It’s back to back safe and medium winners now on the #DiamondTreble and we’re absolutely raking in the cash at the moment despite having one of the toughest fixture lists I can remember in recent days. Today looks like the toughest of the bunch as it’s the period just before all the big clubs resume action after the international break so there are very few fixtures we can even look at today, but I’ve done my best to dig out the best 3 I can find. There’s probably quite a few of you who won’t be much for today’s treble as you “don’t like” unders bets or positive asians. But stop moaning and consider this; if absolutely nothing happens in all 3 games….WE WIN :)
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SAFE DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 6/5
MEDIUM DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 5/1
RISKY DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 35/1
1) HJK Helsinki vs MyPa (Finnish Veikkausliiga, 4:30PM)
We’re reaching the closing stages of the season in Finland and with 3 games remaining this fixture doesn’t really matter for either side. HJK have already clinched the Veikkausliiga title by some margin whereas MyPa will be fighting again next season as they have a guaranteed mid-table finish. But though Mika Lehkosuo’s men have nothing to play for in the league, they do have a Europa League group game in a few weeks time and Lehkosuo is keen to get his players back up to fitness following an 11 day break from football. Well, it’s not been an 11 day break for everyone actually. Defender Veli Lampi, midfielder Sebastian Sorsa and midfielder Teemu Tainio have all been involved in international action with Finland which means they played at the weekend and on Tuesday evening as well. Lehkosuo is yet to rule out these players but it’s highly unlikely they will feature this evening really having all played 2 days ago. You can add to the list of players who won’t be playing with Joevin Jones who is still in action with Trinidad & Tobago as well as Areistide Bance who is still with his international team, Burkina Faso. And then you can add to that list with injuries too in the form of Rasmus Schuller, Mika Vayrynen and Roni Porokara who will all miss today’s game through some form of injury. Lehkosuo may be boosted by the return of 21 year old striker Nikolai Alho who has scored 6 goals in 19 appearances this season, but that’s about the only good news for his side this evening and he has bigger fish to fry in order to get his side ready for a big game against Torino in 2 weeks and has the Finnish Suomen Cup final in 8 days as well. Now I’m not saying HJK won’t win this game. They have some decent players to fill these holes and they have coped well with injuries throughout this season because of their depth of squad, but personally I believe with all of these players out it makes the positive asian lines an attractive target. For the safe bet I’ll be hitting a +2.5 handicap, something which in 62 previous meetings between these two clubs would have won on 54 occasions! HJK have won just 4 of their 15 home games by 3 goals or more this season whereas MyPa have lost 4 of their 14 away games by this margin too. Yes, MyPa are absolutely shocking away from home whereas HJK are amazing in front of their home fans but you have to take into account the sheer number of players that are missing here and that neither side has anything to play for. I do think HJK will win it, they are a higher class side, but I don’t think it will be as convincing as the bookies are anticipating.
SAFE BET: MyPa +2.5 Asian Handicap at 1.400
MEDIUM BET: Both Teams NOT to Score at 4/5
RISKY BET: HJK to win by 1 goal at 5/2
2) Al Sareeh vs Al Alhi (Jordan League, 5:30PM)
Time to head over to Jordan for our 2nd pick of the day in what looks set to be a pretty dull affair so don’t get your hopes up. Al Sareeh have never been a big goalscoring side in the top flight. Last season they averaged 2.32 goals per game, the 5th lowest average in the Jordan top flight and on their way to an 8th place finish last year they scored just 25 goals in 22 games, an average of 1.14 per game. But so far this season they have had significant problems finding the net. In their opening 3 games in the league they have managed to find the net just once, losing 2-0, losing 1-0 and drawing 1-1 against That Ras last time out. Today they face an Al Alhi Amman side who following promotion from the 1st Division last season have really struggled with life in the top flight. They’re yet to find the net in 270 minutes of football in a higher league drawing 0-0, losing 3-0 and losing 2-0. But as well as league form for 3 games, we also have their form from the Jordan Cup as well which takes place just before the season kicks off and that doesn’t make for attractive reading either to be honest. In 8 games of cup and league football so far this season Al Sareeh have won 1, scoring a total of 4 goals and those 8 games have seen a total of 12 goals, an average of 1.5 per game. Al Alhi have also played 8 games in cup and league with those 8 games producing just 10 goals, an average of 1.25 per game. The two actually met back in August in the Jordan Cup at Al Alhi and that fixture finished 1-0 and I’m expecting another significant lack of goals today from the bottom two sides in this league who lack quality in front of goal.
SAFE BET: Under 3.5 Goals at 3/10
MEDIUM BET: Under 2.5 Goals at 4/5
RISKY BET: Under 1.5 Goals at 12/5
3) Barranquilla vs Real Cartagena (Colombian Primera B, 9PM)
Going for a late one in South America to round off the day as bottom of the league Barranquilla who have lost 6 of their last 7 games welcome 10th placed Real Cartagena. It’s a short journey up the coast for Juan Jiminez’s side who haven’t had a bad season so far really but he will be confident of his side picking up a win here at a ground where in recent years they have picked up their fair share of points. In last years Primera B it was Real Cartagena who did the double over Baranquilla with 2 wins in their 2 meetings and it’s now 7 consecutive meetings since Baranquilla last beat these boys with Cartagena winning 5 of those meetings. Here at the Estadio Romelio Martínez the two sides have met on 10 occasions with Barranquilla winning just 2 of those! Cartagena haven’t been brilliant on their travels this season by any means and I’m perfectly aware of that fact which is what makes it difficult to choose a bet here because I feel it’s either going to be a 1 goal win for Real Cartagena or a draw, both are entirely possible. But with the way the prices are set it makes it pretty difficult to choose 3 bets that don’t contradict each other in some way. Cartagena have some damn decent goalscorers who are in good form at the moment and if they are on form then they could well pick up their first away win of the season, but can you really back a side who are yet to win away from home to go here and collect 3 points? Well they are against the weakest side in the league so I’m going to, but for the safe bet I am going REALLY safe at a bit of a shit price, simply because it’s the best bet there is!
SAFE BET: Real Cartagena or Draw at 2/9
MEDIUM BET: Real Cartagena to win at 5/6
RISKY BET: Real Cartagena HT/FT at 2/1
