Shocking day for the #DiamondTreble yesterday folks and I can only apologise. These internationals are becoming pretty hard to predict but you all seem to hunt for blood if I don’t put a treble up so today the only option really is to take the bull by the horns and focus on them. I’ve picked out 3 bets from today’s International fixtures to make a little continental #DiamondTreble. Let’s hope we can get a winner on the board with these!
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SAFE DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 9/5
MEDIUM DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 15/2
RISKY DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 43/1
1) San Marino vs Switzerland (Euro 2016 Qualifying, 7:45PM)
As most of you will know, when San Marino come to town there is really no way you can start backing handicaps. There’s just no value these days in backing San Marino to lose by 6 or 7 goals as the bookies really have their bank protected in that neck of the woods. But one area where they are yet to cut off our blood supply is backing corners against San Marino and that’s exactly the area that we’ll be exploiting once again tonight. In San Marino’s opening 2 qualifiers they have conceded 21 corners, an average of 10.5 per game and this is an ongoing trend. Against weaker sides they do seem to hold their own as games are much tighter, but Switzerland are no weak side despite a shocking start to their qualifying campaign. They need a convincing win here in order to repair goal difference, restore confidence and get some points on the board and I expect it to be attack from the outset. Against England San Marino conceded 16 corners and it’s been a similar story against teams here at home in the past who are of a similar standard. The only decent team to really not achieve any kind of corners here in Serravalle was Poland in qualifying last year but they were absolutely dire and even allowed San Marino to score in that game. The Swiss have the likes of Shakiri and Xhaka and they have the likes of 6ft 2 Seferovic who can win headers for fun against this defence. They notched up 10 corners in their 1-0 loss in Slovenia last Thursday against a much stronger side and even picked up 5 corners against England. In a must win game where they need to continually attack and score goals I just have to back corners tonight.
SAFE BET: Over 8 Corners at 4/11
MEDIUM BET: Over 10.0 Asian Corners at 1.850
RISKY BET: Over 12 Corners at 9/4
2) Gibraltar vs Georgia (Euro 2016 Qualifier, 7:45PM)
Back to back 7-0 losses for Gibraltar have been a bit of a baptism of fire to life in qualification and having watched both of their games, I can tell you that they were lucky to only concede 14 goals in those 2 games. I really can’t imagine what’s going to happen when they face Germany in November but it could well be close to 20 if they play like they have in their past two games. I’m pretty sure their keeper is on LSD for most of the 90 minutes and their defence is reminiscent of my works 5-a-side team who ship double figures on a regular basis. Some of the mistakes they were making against Ireland at the weekend should have been punishable by banning these players from playing professionally for life, but this is Gibraltar, they’ll learn I suppose, albeit the hard way! Tonight they take on possibly the weakest team they have faced so far in Georgia but though the visitors may have lost both of their opening games as well, they are pretty used to this whole qualifying thing and they are capable of scoring goals and winning games. They lost 1-2 to Republic of Ireland who then went on to beat Gibraltar 7-0 only a few days later so the difference in class is pretty evident right there. Georgia beat Saudi Arabia and Liechtenstein in friendlies recently as well and though they are likely to finish 2nd bottom of this group, I have no doubt that they’ll collect at least 6 points along the way as they have to play Gibraltar twice!
SAFE BET: Georgia -1 Handicap at 1/2
MEDIUM BET: Georgia -2 Handicap at Evens
RISKY BET: Georgia -3 Handicap at 12/5
3) Armenia vs France (International Friendly, 5PM)
I admire the French. If you remember we backed them as outsiders in the World Cup and backed them to sail through their group which they did and this could well be the period of the French revolution. This side works in cycles see. Every 8 years or so they are a great side for 4 years and then they drop off and with Euro 2016 being hosted in their country it means qualification isn’t a problem, but it doesn’t mean that Deschamps won’t be taking these friendlies for granted. But this choice is less about France and more about Armenia, more notably what their coach has had to say this week. Bernard Challandes was asked by press what he thinks about this game and his exact words were “It’s a nightmare. For me it’s a shit match”. 5 of his top players are injured for this game and having played a tough qualifier against Serbia only 3 days ago, this is the kind of game he really doesn’t need. Challendes really wants to play a B-side for this game, but he can’t because he doesn’t have a B side so instead he will be throwing in a few youngsters to fill the holes. Yes, Armenia were impressive against Serbia last time out but this is the French and they are seriously weakened this evening. For Deschamps, he will of course make changes for this game. It’s a friendly and he needs to give players a chance. Benzema, Mangala and Lloris definitely won’t be available as they are nursing injuries but the likes of Pogba could start as well as Andre Pierre-Gignac who has had a storming start to the season at Marseille. Regardless of which French side is fielded this evening, they have some exciting youth players and some very decent players with experience and though Deschamps has expressed his sympathy with the current situation for Challendes, he has also stated that he is going out there to win this game and they should do that convincingly against a tired Armenian side who are missing players and really don’t want to be playing.
SAFE BET: France to win at 2/5
MEDIUM BET: France HT/FT at 21/20
RISKY BET: France -2.5 Asian Handicap at 3.900
