Well we’ve had some cracking days in this last week or so with 100/1 winners on the Europa League as well as numerous #DiamondTreble winners including the 6/1 shot on Wednesday night. After a brief break yesterday which was a shocking day of football we’re back again today with another #DiamondTreble that should help to boost those balances! WHO’S READY???
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SAFE DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 2/1
MEDIUM DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 13/2
RISKY DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 42/1
1) T.N.S vs Aberystwyth (Welsh Premier League, 7:45PM)
We start with one of my favourite leagues and favourite teams…TNS in Wales. The Welsh Champions simply dominate everyone in this league every year and reach the Champions League qualifiers before getting dominated themselves. It’s a vicious circle but tonight they look to extend their lead at the top of the league to 12 points as they face off against 2nd placed Aberystwyth. For those of you that followed last week you’ll remember we backed TNS in their 0-5 win away at Bangor but tonight poses a new challenge as they head back to Park Hall Stadium and face a pretty decent outfit on paper. But Craig Harrison’s side are in fine form at the moment and in 13 games this season they are yet to lose, winning 10 and drawing 3 of those. They’ve scored 2 or more goals in 4 of their 6 home games this season and though they will be missing top scorer Wilde for this game, they do welcome back Matty Williams in his place and have plenty of other goalscorers to rely on. The likes of Alex Darlington, Greg Draper, Aeron Edwards and Adrian Cieslewicz have all been in fine form this year and though the loss of Wilde is a blow following his red card against Bangor, they still have sufficient firepower to cope without him. As for Aberystwyth well they are an improving side there’s no doubt about it. They’ve been building a squad for 15 months now under boss Ian Hughes and are very slowly closing the gap between themselves and the likes of TNS, but at the moment they are a class below in all honesty. They’ve picked up decent wins recently against Newton and Cefn Druids but herein lies the problem with Aberystwyth…both of those wins were at home. In their last 3 away games they have not only lost all 3 against Newtown, Prestatyn and Bala but they have also conceded 12 goals in those 3 games, not the kind of defensive stability you need when you’re travelling to free scoring TNS. Hughes will also be missing the likes of Luke Sherbon (MF,11,1) and first choice goalkeeper Mike Lewis for TNS this evening as well as some other squad players. The two have met here at Park Hall on a total of 13 occasions with TNS winning 12 of those and the other ending in a draw. The average scoreline over those 12 meetings has been 3 – 0.5 with TNS having won the last 3 meetings here to nil and having scored 3 or more goals in 5 of the last 7. Hughes’ Aberystwyth side have got their work cut out tonight if they are expecting to get anything out of this game that’s for sure. For the safe bet I’m backing TNS to find the net in the 1st half. They’ve scored an average of 2 first half goals per game this season on home soil and were incredibly quick off the blocks against Bangor last time out leading in the first 6 minutes.
SAFE BET: TNS to Score 1st Half at 4/11
MEDIUM BET: TNS Over 2.5 Team Goals at 4/5
RISKY BET: TNS 1st Half Highest Scoring at 11/5
2) Germany vs Gibraltar (UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifier, 7:45PM)
Let’s be honest, the chances of finding value in this game are pretty slim. I would be very very surprised if this doesn’t end in double figures having personally watched Gibraltar play against Poland and Republic of Ireland and lose 7-0 on both occasions so against the World Champions this really should be a thrashing; I’m telling you nothing new here I know that. But one area that has been left open for exploitation is the corners market. Gibraltar’s shocking defence often means that there are deflections everywhere and their keeper couldn’t catch a cold so having racked up 12, 14 & 11 corners against Poland, Ireland and Georgia respectively, it’s hard to see how there won’t be more than that tonight. Look at San Marino for example; whenever they play there are corners galore and though Germany will probably take the lead inside 5 minutes tonight and go onto win 12-0, improving their goal difference and getting a decent result here could be crucial given their poor start to their qualifying campaign. Germany have achieved an average of 9 corners per game on their own in their first 3 qualifiers and these were against much stronger opposition than Gibraltar and though I just can’t bring myself to go and back a side to win by 10 or more, I can dabble in these corner markets instead.
SAFE BET: Over 11 Corners at 1/2
MEDIUM BET: Over 13 Corners at 21/20
RISKY BET: Over 15 Corners at 11/5
3) Dessel Sport vs Mons (Belgian 2nd Division, 7:30PM)
Following our success in the Belgian league the other night with Sint-Truidense I’m heading back to the 2nd tier to whet my appetite again as a poor Dessel Sport host a Mons side who are looking to return to life in the top tier. Dessel have been on an absolutely horrible run lately and have won only 3 games this season, drawing another and losing the remaining 11. 2 of those wins were against the only 2 sides who sit below them in the league while the other was an incredible shock away at Eupen, something I’m hoping will not be repeated this evening. At home this season they have collected 1 point from a possible 21 scoring just 4 goals whilst conceding 13. Dessel have recently completed the signing of Stein Huysegems, a Belgian striker who has been crafting his trade in the Australian A-League with Wellington Phoenix in recent seasons and he’s certainly a great addition to their attacking lineup, however, it’s not quite clear at the moment whether he’s been cleared to play tonight against Mons. Aside from that, Bart Wilmssen will be missing Hans Hannes (MF,12,2) who is suspended and Omar Bennessar (ST,14,3) who has torn abdominal muscles. Mons were relegated from the Belgian Jupiler League last season and are looking to bounce straight back to life in the top tier. Of course, relegation meant a number of changes for this club who had to adjust their budget. Top scorer Tim Matthy’s left to join Mechelen, Shlomi Arbeitman returned to the Israeli Premier League, Christoph Diandi has joined Charleroi and there’s a few more. But Didier Beugines has also made some decent acquisitions in the Summer as well and Mons haven’t had a terrible season so far considering their issues. Eddy Gnohere has been an absolute revelation since joining from Mouscron-Peruwelz in the summer and has 9 goals in 13 appearances this season and will start tonight for the away side. Beugines however will be missing Bilel Ouali (MF,2,0) who has a knee injury and Dideonne Lwangi (MF,3,0) who has a thigh problem. Neither of these are significant blows to be honest as Mons aim to extend their undefeated streak to 6 games away from home. Mons have beaten the two sides directly next to Dessel in the table by an aggregate of 0-7 away from home this season and with a win tonight closing the gap on OH Leuven above them I’m expecting the away side to collect 3 points with ease.
SAFE BET: Mons 0.0, -0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.450
MEDIUM BET: Mons -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.025
RISKY BET: Mons -2.0 Asian Handicap at 4.150
OTHER SAFE BETS TO CONSIDER:
- Romania vs Northern Ireland (Euro Qualifier, 7:45PM) – Northern Ireland +1.5 Asian at 1.450
- France vs Albania (Friendly, 7:45PM) – France HT/FT at 8/15
- Werder Bremen vs Odense BK (Friendly, 4:30PM) – Werder Bremen -1.0 Asian at 1.600
- Skive vs Roskilde (Danish 1st Division, 6PM) – Over 2.0 Goal Line at 1.400
- OH Leuven (W) vs Lierse (W) (BeNe League, 6:30PM) – Lierse Women to win at 4/11
- Cefn Druids vs Rhyl (Welsh Premier League, 7:30PM) – Both Teams to Score at 4/9
- Georgia vs Poland (Euro Qualifier, 5PM) – Poland 0.0 Asian Handicap at 1.325
Add these to the 3 safe bets above from the #DiamondTreble and you’ll have a 10-fold which pays 38/1
