A decent enough day yesterday I suppose. Some of you go on the safe 10-fold but missed the early kick off and bagged some coin whereas others saw a nice little return on the safe #DiamondTreble which paid around Evens so it’s not all bad. Onto today with a dwindling fixtures as the Internationals loom their ugly heads but there’s plenty of lower league action to get involved in! We’re looking at goals today rather than wins as there’s plenty of fixtures out there that stand out to me on the goals front.
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SAFE DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 21/10
MEDIUM DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 7/1
RISKY DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 180/1
1) Elgin City vs Annan Athletic (Scottish League Two, 7:45PM)
Following an absolute thriller in the cup over the last two weekends against non-league Bo’ness United, Elgin get their league campaign back underway tonight as they fight to get off the bottom of the Scottish Football League. Their game against Bo’ness for those who don’t know finished 9-8 on aggregate over 2 legs with their meeting on Saturday finishing 5-4 and this clearly highlighted Elgin’s inability to defend, even against weaker opposition from the Highland League. They’ve now conceded 4 or more goals in their last 3 consecutive games in all competitions and have shipped 8 of those here at Borough Briggs. Having started their campaign with back to back 1-0 wins here at home they’ve gone on to lose their last 2 games without scoring themselves and in their current form you have to expect goals here. Annan come into this game fresh from 10 days rest following a 3-2 home win over Championship side Livingston in the Scottish Cup and they too have been brimming with goals recently. Their last league game finished 4-3 at home to East Stirling, the side who sit directly between Annan and Elgin in the table. This fixture always seems to do the business when it comes to goals as well. The two met back in August in a game which finished 3-3 and their last 3 consecutive meetings here at Borough Briggs have all produced a minimum of 4 goals (2-3, 2-3, 2-2). For the visitors they will be reliant on Peter Weatherson, an Englishs striker who has scored a brace in his last 2 outings for Annan and has 7 goals in his last 6 games. Meanwhile the key man for Elgin if we’re looking for goals here is Shane Sutherland who has 3 goals in his last 2 games for the hosts. Both are expected to start tonight and that means goals goals goals for me as they go up against 2 defences who aren’t exactly convincing.
SAFE BET: Over 2.5 Goals at 1/2
MEDIUM BET: Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score at 8/11
RISKY BET: Both Teams to Score in Both Halves at 8/1
2) Gateshead vs Lincoln (English Conference, 7:45PM)
I’m also looking at goals again here but in the English Conference as Gateshead and Lincoln take each other on at the Gateshead International Stadium. Neither of these sides were blessed with a day of rest at the weekend as both were involved in FA Cup ties, Gateshead beating non-league Norton United 0-4 and Lincoln losing 2-1 away at non-league Eastleigh. Norton is pretty close to me here in Staffordshire and I know quite a few people that went to the game against Gateshead. Of course they were a class above the part-timers of Norton United but Norton did pose a threat at times and the general consensus is that they should have scored, they just didn’t have a goalscorer to stick it in. Well tonight they face Lincoln and in Jordan Burrows and Ben Tomlinson they have players who can score goals, in fact the two have bagged on 12 occasions between them this season. Chris Moyses will be disappointed with their cup exit at the hands of Eastleigh at the weekend but will be looking for his side to return to the league aiming to improve on their current 13th position. The hosts have averaged 2.89 goals per game this season but here on home soil that average increases to 3.33. Lincoln on the other hand have averaged the 2nd highest goals per game in the Conference at 3.32 but their average away from home increases to 3.67. Both teams have found the net in 5 of the last 6 meetings between the two clubs and I’m expecting that to be a formality this evening but there’s also another area to look here and that’s in the 1st half goals market. Games at Gateshead this season have produced an average of 1.78 1st half goals and only 1 of their 9 home games has reached the break goalless. Games involving Lincoln away from home on the other hand have produced an average of 2.11 goals before half time, the highest in the Conference by a significant margin and there has been at least 1 goal in the 1st half of all of their away games. So though I’m expecting goals here, it makes sense to me to focus our attention on the first half of the match and hit the goals markets there which have some huge variances in price.
SAFE BET: Over 0.5 First Half Goals at 3/10
MEDIUM BET: Over 1.5 First Half Goals at 11/8
RISKY BET: Over 2.5 First Half Goals at 5/1
3) Al Shabab vs Al Jazira (UAE Cup, 3:30PM)
The earliest of today’s kick offs features Al Shabab and Al Jazira who sit 3rd and 2nd respectively in the Arabian Gulf League but today meet in group A of the UAE Cup. Al Shabab have had the perfect start to their cup campaign with 2 wins from 2 and sit top of the pile in their group but these games were against pretty weak opposition whereas Al Jazira have had a win and a loss in their 2 games but these were against sides who currently sit 4th and 5th in the top flight of UAE football. Today is arguably the hardest game of the group for both of these sides but though the result may be difficult to predict, the number of goals should be relatively easy. In their 5 games over the last month Al Shabab have scored a whopping 12 goals but in the meantime have also conceded 7 so they’re not all they’re cracked up to be. Henrique Luvannor who signed from Sheriff Tiraspol in the summer has been on fire in the league with 5 goals so far this season while in the cup it’s been Edgar Silva, a former Primeira Liga player in Portugal who has been making an impact with 2 goals in his 2 appearances. They’re a very decent side going forward but all of that is insignificant compared to the goalscoring power that Al Jazira have this year. Now I am fully aware that Mirko Vucinic is yet to appear in the cup so far this season but against Al Ain last time out, Al Jazira pretty much proved that they can score goals without him, scoring 3 goals without their top striker. That being said, if he does start it’s a huge boost to our chances here given that he has 13 goals in 8 league appearances since joining from Juventus in the summer. Remember that they also have the likes of Lanzini who signed from River Plate and has been a great goalscoring threat from midfield and they have a backup striker in Jonathan Pritroipa who signed from Rennes and found the net in his last cup game against Al Ain. Add to that the Brazilian midfielder Jucilei who has previous clubs like Anzhi and Corinthians and you can see why Al Jazira are a huge threat in front of goal this season. The thing is that most sides in this league when looking to improve these days are signing strikers and attacking midfielders in the hunt for goals meanwhile their defences remain as homegrown talent which often can’t cope, therefore making this league and others around the middle-east and absolute gold mine for goals this year. Even when you look at the history between these two sides without those players you’re still seeing goals left, right and centre with their past 5 meetings here finishing 2-4, 5-1, 2-4 (AET), 3-2 and 2-1. Vucinic or no Vucinic I have to back goals in this one and if he does start I will be rebacking in-play as well.
SAFE BET: Over 2.5 Goals at 4/7
MEDIUM BET: Over 3.0 Goal Line at 1.925
RISKY BET: Over 4.0 Goal Line at 3.350
OTHER SAFE BETS TO CONSIDER:
- Alfreton vs Bristol Rovers (Conference, 7:45PM) – Bristol Rovers Draw No Bet at 4/11
- Barnet vs Torquay (Conference, 7:45PM) – Over 9.0 Corners at 1/2
- Bristol City vs AFC Wimbledon (JPT, 7:45PM) – Bristol City to win at 4/9
- Vasas Budapest vs Videoton (Hungarian Cup, 5PM) – Videoton to win at 8/15
- Lafnitz vs Karlsdorf (Austrian Regionalliga, 5:30PM) – Lafnitz Draw No Bet at 4/9
- Gainsbrough vs Guiseley (Conference North, 7:45PM) – Over 2.5 Goals at 3/5
- Kickers Offenbach vs Hessen Kessel (German Regionalliga, 7:15PM) – Offenbach win at 4/7
Add these to the 3 safe bets above from the #DiamondTreble and you’ll have a 10-fold which pays 50/1
