So after a disappointing start to the week with yesterday’s treble, tonight I’m focusing solely on football on home soil. We’ve got a wealth of fixtures from the Championship, League One and League Two this evening so I’ve picked out 1 game from each league and have put together the usual list of 3 bets per game; safe, medium and risky. You choose what kind of risk you want to take and get involved!
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SAFE DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 17/10
MEDIUM DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 5/1
RISKY DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 111/1
1) Charlton vs Bolton (English Championship, 7:45PM)
Trying to swerve a draw in the Championship these days is like travelling to Scunthorpe and expecting to come back with anything less than a few STD’s. The amount of draws in this league is incredible so backing the likes of Norwich to win at 8/15 just really doesn’t provide the kind of value we need. Instead, I’ve been looking for sides who are priced incorrectly and could well get a draw out of their games this evening and I’ve found exactly that with Bolton. The Neil Lennon era firmly got underway at the weekend as Bolton collected a 0-1 win at St Andrews and though most sides get some form of result at a Blues team who simply can’t win in front of their home fans, it really was a much needed win for Lennon who has inherited a pretty decent squad; one which shouldn’t be lingering in the relegation zone in all honesty. Only a few years ago Bolton were a Premier League side and they still have the infrastructure to get back there. With Neil Lennon they have an experienced and passionate manager who could well achieve something at this club. That 0-1 win at Birmingham was only their 2nd win of the season but you do sense the tide is turning and I have a good feeling they can get something out of this game against Charlton tonight. The hosts have been impressive but when you actually look at their form and talk of these undefeated streaks, many of Charlton’s results have been draws. They suffered their first loss of the season after 12 games at the weekend when they visited Bournemouth which may sound incredible, but not when you consider that 7 of their previous 11 games ended all square. And when you consider that both of their meetings last season ended all square and the fact that Charlton have won just 1 of their last 5 meetings with Bolton, it’s really hard to start looking at the price of that double chance and getting excited. Yes Charlton are undefeated at home this season while Bolton’s win at the weekend was their first points collected on the road, but things have changed since those early results and I’m looking at the positives here. As for the lineups, well Bob Peeters will definitely be without striker Simon Church and defender Joe Gomez who are both still missing but following knocks which saw them substituted at the weekend, Charlton could also be without leading scorer Vetokele and midfielder Johan Gudmundsson who would both be huge absences for Peeters tonight if they were to miss the game (not yet confirmed). Meanwhile Neil Lennon’s only new injury concern is Dean Moxey who picked up a knock at the weekend but many have called for him to be replaced anyway so this could be a benefit. Jermaine Beckford may well start again as a solitary striker as he still looks to open his account though leading scorer Joe Mason could also be brought off the bench if Lennon decides to change his winning squad slightly. All in all I feel there is too much value here in a Bolton side who have a new found confidence under Lennon and given the amount of decent players in this lineup they should be achieving much more than this.
SAFE BET: Bolton or Draw at 11/20
MEDIUM BET: No Goal Before 31:00 at 5/6
RISKY BET: DRAW at 12/5
2) Exeter vs Wycombe (English League Two, 7:45PM)
If you want a bet on goals this season then head to St James’ park as Exeter’s nets have probably been replaced a few times by now. The 17th placed side have both scored and conceded in every single home game so far this season, the only home side in England this evening who have that record to their name and this evening they welcome league leaders Wycombe to the south west. The visitors have been in fine form on their travels and currently remain undefeated on the road after 6 games scoring in 5 of those and conceding in 3. But don’t write off Exeter straight away here. A few weeks ago it was Bury who lead League Two and when they traveled to St James’ park they were sent packing with a 2-1 loss here so this side are perfectly capable of an upset. But it’s goals I’m going to be looking at here rather than the upset or the win for the league leaders. Wycombe have been a fine goalscoring side this season and it’s surprising for most that they lead League Two at the moment given that they escaped relegation on goal difference last year. Gareth Ainsworth has been able to call on the likes of veteran Paul Hayes to get the goals this season meanwhile Sam Wood has been impressive in midfield as has Peter Murphy, chipping in with 4 goals this season so far. The hosts on the other hand have the likes of Graham Cummins who has already matched his goal tally from last season in just 11 appearances this year for Exeter, including a goal in their 1-1 draw at the weekend. They will have to cope without Moore-Taylor and Baldwin at the back which could well open gaps for Ainsworth’s side but Paul Tisdale will have a near on full strength attack to rely on in this game which is what we need. The safe bet here will be short and simple and that’s for Wycombe to score a goal, something they have managed in their last 5 consecutive visits to St James’ park and in 11 of their 13 league games this season. But I don’t expect them to get out of here with a clean sheet either so Both Teams to Score looks a great bet for you price hunters!
SAFE BET: Exeter No Clean Sheet / Wycombe to Score at 1/3
MEDIUM BET: Both Teams to Score at 5/6
RISKY BET: Both Teams to Score & Wycombe to win at 9/2
3) Gillingham vs Preston (English League One, 7:45PM)
My final bet of the day is arguably my favourite and it involves a Preston side who I backed pre-season to be promoted to continue their incredible run of form. They’ve played back to back games against my boys Port Vale and have put in convincing performances on both occasions and if you can beat Port Vale (the Barcelona of League One) then you can beat anyone really; at least that’s what I say. Preston now boast a run of 5 consecutive wins in all competitions and 6 games without defeat, a run which has seen them climb to 4th in the table after a bit of ropey start. And having scored 2 or more goals in their last 6 consecutive games it’s hard to see how any side can stop their scoring power at the moment and get a result against them. Simon Grayson has stated that he might be forced to make changes ahead of their trip to Gillingham this evening but this squad will still feature the likes of Joe Garner who has 7 goals this season and Alan Browne who has been instrumental in midfield. Kyle Reid could drop back out of the squad as he’s slowly coming back from an injury and Scott Wiseman could be rested as well but Grayson will be boosted by the return of John Welsh and Lee Holmes who have both recovered from injuries. Gillingham had a pretty decent start to the season this year but it’s all gone wrong recently for Peter Taylor’s side who are without a win in 5 games now, losing 3 of those and scoring just 2 goals in the process. And tonight they could be missing 19 year old defender Kortney Hause who was replaced at the weekend following a knock as well as Doug Loft who still serves his suspension. Danny Kedwell has shown signs of recovery recently and has scored 4 goals in 5 games for Gillingham this season before getting injured. He was on the bench at the weekend and could feature tonight if Taylor feels it’s worth the risk this soon. I just don’t see how Preston don’t get at least a draw from this game and I’m going cautious on the safe bet rather than going for something which could pose a risk. Their goalscoring record has been incredible as of late and only 2 sides have scored more goals than Preston in League One this season.
SAFE BET: Preston Draw No Bet at 3/10
MEDIUM BET: Preston Over 1.5 Team Goals at 4/5
RISKY BET: Joe Garner to Score 2 or More Goals at 5/1
