Another week and another fresh start for the #DiamondTreble. Bit disappointing on Friday after such an amazing week on the whole so I’m aiming for a return to form tonight and I’ve been scouting the fixtures to find my 3 best bets. Tonight’s action comes from Sweden and England, my 2 favourite places for football :)
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SAFE DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 11/5
MEDIUM DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 5/1
RISKY DIAMOND TREBLE PAYS 84/1
1) GIF Sundsvall vs Varberg (Swedish Superettan, 6:20PM)
Why do Superettan games kick off at 20 past the hour? It’s annoying. Anyway, our first pick of the day comes from this strange Swedish league who kick off at odd times as GIF Sundsvall continue their hunt for a spot in the Allsvenskan next season. A win for Ljungskile on Friday evening means Sundsvall are now in 3rd place but a win tonight can move them top. And with the worst goal difference of the 3 remaining sides fighting for a spot in the top flight it means Sundsvall need as many points on the board as possible if they are to secure promotion automatically and escape the playoffs. Roger Franzen’s men are within touching distance of promotion and though they will need Hammarby to slip up in their remaining 3 fixtures if they are to clinch the title, Sundsvall really do stand a chance here as they have 3 routine fixtures to finish the season against sides who are playing for nothing or who are already relegated. And 2 of Sundsvall’s remaining 3 fixtures are here on home soil which is a huge boost when you consider their form here at the Norrporten Arena. They’ve played 13 games here this season and their record reads, won 11, drew 1, lost 1. That is by far the best home record in the league and they have also scored 33 goals here, more than all but 1 other side in the Superettan and have conceded just 12 goals, a record which again only 1 side has bettered. Half of the reason for that is their artificial turf which some sides can find difficult. Quite a few Swedish sides have now adopted a 3G surface with Sundsvall being one of those but that transition for this side has turned their home ground into a fortress with only Sirius winning here this season. Tonight the 26 goal partnership of Eklund and Dibba take on the defence of Varberg, a mid-table side who have nothing left to play for. Mathematically they can still be relegated via the playoffs but it will take a pretty special sequence of events for that to happen and Varberg seem to know that as they’ve seemingly thrown in the proverbial towel as of late. They’re without a win in their last 5 games now and have also failed to score in back to back games. Jorgen Walemark has no injury concerns so that’s a positive boost for the visitors but with no real out and out goalscorers it’s difficult to understand how they can score themselves out of trouble here against a free scoring Sundsvall side. Varberg actually won the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier this season but that was their first win in 3 attempts against Sundsvall having lost 8-2 on aggregate to them the season prior. Sundsvall won their last meeting here with Varberg 4-2 and though I do expect tonight to be a bit tighter than that with this side on the edge of promotion and possibly feeling the nerves, I do see a comfortable victory for the hosts. For the safe bet I’m taking a punt on Sundsvall finding the net before half time given the knowledge that they have scored more 1st half home goals than any other side in this league and have bagged before the break in each of their last 5 home games.
SAFE BET: GIF Sundsvall to Score 1st Half at 4/11
MEDIUM BET: GIF Sundsvall -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.700
RISKY BET: GIF Sundsvall to win both halves at 11/8
2) Falkenberg vs Helsingborg (Swedish Allsvenskan, 6:00PM)
Sticking in Sweden for our 2nd pick of the day as Helsingborg make the 1 hour trip down the Swedish coast to Falkenberg this evening and this fixture looks like it has all the makings of goals. Their previous meeting this season only finished 1-0 to Helsingborg but I’m not letting that put me off here as Helsingborg away and Falkenberg at home normally spells goals. On paper from recent form you would expect Helsingborg to collect a result here against a newly promoted side, but just hold that thought for a second as Helsingborg have absolutely nothing to play for here given a pretty poor season by their standard whereas Falkenberg currently occupy the last relegation playoff spot and are fighting for their lives. The hosts have won back to back games now against 12th placed Norrkopping and 5th placed Hacken and with only 3 games remaining but the knowledge that a win here can move them 3 points clear of the drop, I don’t expect Henrik Larsson’s men (yes the actual Henrik Larsson) to lie down and take a beating here. They’ve scored in every single home game this season and will need their home fans to be behind them all the way if they are to survive this season. They have the likes of veteran striker Patrick Inglesten who has 2 goals in his last 2 games as well as a wealth of midfielders who can score goals such as Wede and Vall so they can certainly score themselves out of adversity should they need to. And given that they have conceded in 10 of their 13 home games this season, they may well need those goalscorers to shine if they are to get a result here, especially against a Helsingborg side who have come to life as of late. They had a terrible start to the season and have had far too many draws to challenge at the top, where they should be challenging, but a run of 2 losses in 16 games since the return from the summer break certainly can’t be sniffed at. Away from home this season they have found the net in 10 of 13 games, but with 2 of those failures being their first 2 away games of the season. They’ve now found the net in each of their last 7 away games, the problem being that they have also conceded in all 7 of those as well! Roger Hanson’s side may well sit 9th of 16 teams in the Allsvenskan but they do have the leagues 2nd top goalscorer amongst their ranks, David Accam. The Ghanain striker has scored 17 goals in 22 starts for Helsingborg this season and has 5 goals in his last 5 league games, an incredible record of goals. He’s fit tonight as only Landgren, Lindstrom and Palsson will be missing for the visitors in what should be a really entertaining affair. Both of these sides know how to score goals and with Helsingborg having an element of freedom about this game tonight but with Falkenberg fighting for their lives, I’m expecting goals goals goals!
SAFE BET: Both Teams to Score at 1/2
MEDIUM BET: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals at 4/5
RISKY BET: Both Teams to Score in Both Halves at 17/2
3) West Brom vs Man United (English Premier League, 8PM)
Time to head a bit closer to home for our final pick of the day as MNF presents West Brom vs Man United. I could go into loads of detail here about Man United’s season so far but for the bets I’m going to go for here it won’t really matter. The reason for that is simple….Mike Dean. Yep, I’m going for cards here and the main reason for that is referee Mike Dean who is making an absolute mare for himself on the paperwork with the amount of cards he’s handed out so far this season. In 8 games so far this season Dean has shown a total of 42 yellow cards and 2 red cards. It’s an average of 5.25 yellow cards per game and 0.25 reds per game but when you add it up using the bookies tally of red cards equal 2 bookings then it’s a total average of 5.75 cards per game. He’s already reffed United this season in their 1-2 home loss to Swansea, showing a total of 6 cards in the process and these two sides have been pretty decent for bookings as well this season. West Brom have received a total of 6 bookings in 3 home games, an average of 2.00 per game and in total there have been 12 bookings in those games, an average of 4.00 per game. Man United have received a total of 7 bookings in their 3 away games so far this season, an average of 2.33 per game and have seen a total of 10 bookings in those 3 games, an average of 3.33 per game. The two met twice last season with 5 cards in their game at Old Trafford and 3 cards in their game here at The Hawthornes, but referee’s in the Premier League are certainly taking less shit so far this season than they did last year. The proof of that is in the stats. There have been an average of 4.29 cards per game in the 79 Premier League games so far this season compared with an average of only 3.47 over the whole of last season and Mike Dean’s previously mentioned average of 5.75 cards per game this season was only 4.00 last season too! I expect the pace of United to cause West Brom a few problems so my first pick will definitely be for West Brom to pick up a few cards but overall there is value everywhere here in the cards markets. It might be worth consulting a few other bookies on the anytime bookings as well!
SAFE BET: West Brom Over 1.5 Team Cards at 4/7
MEDIUM BET: Over 4 Asian Cards at 1.950
RISKY BET: West Brom -1 Card Handicap at 11/4
